Model bull, base, and bear outcomes for each pre-IPO investment. Calculate return sensitivity across IPO price ranges, assess opportunity costs of locked capital, and identify break-even thresholds.
Choose a company and enter your hypothetical investment amount to model return scenarios.
Three scenarios based on plausible IPO/exit valuation ranges. Returns are net of fees and assume long-term capital gains tax (23.8% for HNW investors).
How your return changes across a range of IPO valuations. Each column represents a different exit valuation — from 50% below current to 100% above. Net of fees and estimated taxes.
What your capital would earn in alternative investments over the same period. Private market illiquidity has a real cost — the return you forgo elsewhere.
Base-case return estimate for $100K invested in each company at current implied valuation. Assumes base-case IPO and 5% total fees. Sorted by estimated return.
All scenarios are hypothetical projections, not predictions or guarantees. Return calculations assume: (1) successful transaction completion (ROFR is not exercised); (2) IPO occurs within the stated window; (3) pre-IPO shares convert to public shares at the IPO price. Actual returns will differ due to: ROFR failure, IPO delay, lock-up period price changes, share class conversion mechanics, and tax treatment variations. Past valuation trajectories do not predict future outcomes. This is a modeling tool — consult qualified financial advisors before investing.